OTT v MTL - Predictions

And so here we are, in the last week of the season. How exciting! By Sunday morning, we'll know if the Habs have managed to totally bork their 100 yr anniversary, or succeed in their quest to challenge for the cup. We'll know who they'll be playing, where, and when. And it might be a celebrity golf tournament at Tremblant, or home ice advantage against the Phillidelphia Flyers... wild!

Unfortunately the Sens were not able to beat Florida last week; so the Habs can't call a mulligan on this one, even with their top 2 defenseman out. They won't win all the games this week, but neither will the Rangers or Florida. Still, this is the Montreal Canadiens' game in hand; this is the card up their sleeve; the one separating them from the other teams in the race. One "extra" game against a bottom dwelling team.

Win this one, and the playoffs are almost assured. Lose, and you'r back in Coach class eating stale peanuts and watching bad chick flicks with broken earphones.

Predictions

• Habs surprise everyone with a win tonight. Say, 4-3.
• Kovalev is gonna have trouble on the powerplay today, being the only major shooting threat.

Wouldn't be surprised if....

• Hamrlik and Brisebois are a -3 tonight
• Top line for the Sens comes out singing, after getting slapped by Murray on Friday.

I will not be able to tweeet the game, as I have a hockey game of mine own to play. That's 3 games in a row! Zut. I'll be ready for tomorrow against the Rangers though.

Spezza is still a wankus.

MTL v TOR - WIN 6-2 Summary

Well its all smile and sunshine in Montreal again today. Reading Mike Boone's post today you'd think that the last few months were equivalent to a 3 game losing streak on the road; instead of 6 weeks of desperate pleas, crying, hair pulling, more crying, head smashing, nail biting, etc... I can go on.

All is right in the world; the Montreal Canadiens beat the tar out of the weaker Toronto Maple Leafs, and not only avoided embarrassment, yet again, but looked like a team that could compete in the playoffs.

I was out at the bar last night, here in Toronto, but I was the only one watching the game. After the first period, the bar dimmed the sound for the game, and slowly put the music back on. By the time the Leafs scored their second, you couldn't even hear the horn... But it didn't matter. I saw my team play a great game, and make up for those last 2 meetings that caused so much grief.

So: one week to go, and Habs are flying high -- except they got some real teams to play. Ottawa can still sting us, but never mind that: the least 3 games are against playoff teams. Remember Buffalo? They aren't in the playoffs, and played like they should be. Pittsburgh and Boston are playing well, and those will be real games. Let's see how we hold up then!

Until then, enjoy the sunshine, Canadiens fans!

MTL v TOR - Predictions

I am drawing a blank on what is going to happen tonight, but I am excited for the game.

Its a blustery day here in TO, a cold wind rolls in... is it the wind of change? Or is it a frigid gust that will freeze the Canadiens in their march towards the playoffs? I have no idea.

For the Canadiens:
A couple big wins, solid team efforts, and a no. 1 line that is getting the job done. A goalie back in form, and defense that is starting take control of the danger areas. A fragile opponent coming off a back-to-back game. Not to mention the hunger for vengeance.

For the Leafs:
A home game on Saturday Night, stung pride from getting thumped, and a proven ability to score goals. They might be losing, but the Leafs are rarely shut out. Not to mention they aren't ready to roll over and die like the Islanders, and they sure do love beating the Habs -- especially this year.

For the Canadiens to win, they are gonna have to finish their chances; no missing open nets, flubbing break-aways and staying on the outside on the power play. Since the Leafs can score, even late in a game, Montreal has simply got to punish the Leafs when they fumble. And they WILL fumble.

No predictions on this one, its too close to home. I really want the Habs to win, and not sure if they can :)

Good luck! Go Habs Go!

May not have the tweets tonight, might be out watching the game.

MTL v NYI - WIN 5-1 Summary

Again, an apology for not being able to tweet the game last night; I had visitors over and had to entertain.

I did manage to watch most of the game, and saw all the goals. I loved being wrong in my prediction: the Islanders were simply not ready to win. They did not hammer the Habs, frustrate Kovalev, or really show up at all. The Canadiens were allowed to run as free as a hippy's child in a field of daisies; after Danis let in a few softies, the Isles just wanted to go home; and the Habs continued their strong play to complete the domination.

I mean, Mike Komisarek scored. He goes back to playing strong defense, and ends up getting a goal. Hopefully he gets the message: strong defense pays off :)

The Good
It was nice to see Les Boys play a strong game against a physical opponent. Last night, their speed and determination payed off, and players were playing with their heads again. Halak made some great saves, and the team was generally flying high.

The Bad
I didn't see much "bad" out there... everytime I looked up I saw the Canadiens celebrating a goal.

The Ugly
Tommy K's penalty shot. I love the guy, he's just not a penalty-shot kinda player. He tried to go back-hand, and had the open net if he got it, but Danis saw it coming all the way. Its just not nice to get a dude's hopes up, is all.

I hope the team settles down from this big (easy?) win and prepares for war on Saturday. Leafs deserve some payback...

I love the player's names on the Islanders; Bentivoglio and Rechlicz take the cake!

MTL v NYI - Predictions

The Canadiens have shown that matched speed versus speed, youth versus youth, they can win big games. They have beaten Detroit, San Jose and Chicago; and they are 2-1 against Pittsburgh.

The problem is teams that play big and tough; instead of trying to out-race, they counter speed with size, and to date the bigger team has won. The Montreal Canadiens are easily "separated from the puck" as McGuire likes to say; and there is no secondary puck support. The passing hasn't been strong enough to break the traps, and the result is loss after frustrating loss.

Tonight they play the Islanders; same ones that beat us a couple weeks ago. And they haven't shrunk any. Yes, the Isle got some ugly goals that maybe Price should have stopped... but it doesn't really matter. Right now the Double-EWS matter: and the Habs have got to stop letting teams get ugly and scoring goals.

Otherwise, if they make the playoffs, they'll be easy meat.

Predictions

• Habs WIN a close one; 2-1 or 3-2
• Isles ugly play causes many an offensive zone turnover, and Habs forecheck will be woefully lacking.

Wouldn't be surprised if...

• After a big win at home, Habs come out flat and bewildered.
• Kovalev turns it over repeatedly in the first, then disappears.

Nothing has changed: we still need to win and improve. We ahve one the test of speed; anow we need to win the test of strength. Then we can see about the test of nerves, in Toronto :)

Update: Price is out as starting goalie, gonna have some Halak-attacks tonight! This does not change the prediction; I expect Halak to have a strong game. Despite not playing much recently.

Where to be for the playoffs...

Not so much as "where to watch the Playoffs" but more on teams getting to the playoffs, and being in the right mindset.

The Montreal Canadiens seem to be a bit resurgent lately; playing good hockey and getting better with each game. This is a good thing; they have had their let-down, and have found a way to recover. In the playoffs, this is an essential experience to have. If after a bad couple games against a team, you can look around the room and know that your team-mates are gonna pull together and rally, you have a strong team.

Which brings us to today's topic; what is the best place to be entering the playoffs?

I say 4th or 5th. Middle of the pack.

3rd is always reserved for the loser division: the one where they get home ice advantage, despite the fact they are 10 points back from the team in 8th place. And they get home ice for the entire playoff run. Its the biggest piece of bullsh!t the NHL has today -- never mind all that instigator or toe in the crease crap.

Teams that walk in 1st place have usually had an outstanding season, without much adversity. They have been able to beat teams on single nights, have generally avoided injury, and also avoided structured counter-plans from other teams. They usually have a late season let down, and assume they can bring the same winning game plan to the table in the playoffs. I dare say that only very experienced teams, like New Jersey and Detroit, can pull of a Stanley Cup victory and a President's Trophy win.

Teams that fight and claw and struggle their way in to the post-season dance are usually prepared for the grind of the opening rounds -- but having already gone through weeks of "must win games" its very difficult to maintain that energy level for the 16-wins needed for a victory. Edmonton and Calgary managed to pull it off, but their system was to sit back in a defensive shell and frustrate the other team, then punish when the chance arose. Since there is little expectation on 7/8th place teams, they usually have a brutal and bloody first round which leaves both teams battered and spent.

Middle of the pack teams are usually the ones who have played well enough to win, have good skill and goaltending, but have gone through some pain in their season. They have had to gut-check, to adjust their playing style, and adapt to different circumstances. They have lost a bunch of games, and (hopefully) understand why they lost -- what they did wrong. On the other hand, they didn't burn out scratching and clawing their way in; instead they usually are prepared to shift their play style in order to win. Which, in a 7-game series vs. the same team, is essential.

Home ice advantage is usually pretty nice; but if there are any upsets in the first round, even a 5th place team can find themselves with home ice for the rest of the run.

The Montreal Canadiens had 4th place, and promptly lost it to more deserving teams. They are now on the outside fighting to stay in. Lately they have shown signs of recovery; and since the playoffs are "a new season" its possible that players hit their stride at precisely the right time -- wouldn't that be cool.

Considering the Habs have beaten anyone in the playoffs except Boston in the last 10 years, you can expect riots, but no parades. They might get out of the first round, but even now there are not many signs they have the endurance or tenacity to get past the second.

CHI v MTL - WIN 4-1 Summary

The Canadiens did not wear their CAC jerseys, instead opting for the more civilized CA jerseys (from 1914-15, I think). The switch 1/2 worked: we won the game (yay!) but we lost 2 players to injury (booo!)

Huet played a good game, but the Habs got lucky- lucky bounces, lucky breaks, lucky (non-icing) calls. And since we had been so un-lucky lately, it was nice to take one.

Luck doesn't have everything to do with it: Carey Price played a fantastic game in his old style, and Markov / Schneider scored the 2 goals we deserved (Schneider's actually went off Higgins, details details). Tanguay had a bunch of steals but failed to finish, and Andre Kostitsyn benefited from Higgins sending him breakout passes once Higgy took Sergei's place in the lineup.

With Hamrlik and Sergei getting hurt, Metro was the odd man out, where Higgins went to play on the line with Pleks and AK, and Dandineault played some defense.

The story here, though, is that despite the lucky goals and strong finish, it was Chicago that controlled the play. Chicago had the majority of the puck possession, and looked to be the better team. The Habs were successful in limiting their chances in close pushing the young 'Hawks to the outside, and of course Price played beautifully. Once they were up, they prevented Chicago from getting started with lots of whistles; either icing, offside, out of bounds, whatever; the game slowed to a crawl. A great way to crush a young, fast, puck-possession team.

By the end of the game, the Blackhawks wanted to just move on to their next game, or get to Chez Pare, or whatever.

And I can't help bu wonder if when the Bell Centre starts taunting Huet, he thinks to himself: "Ah, the only rink in the league where they get my name right..."

The Good, The Bad, The Ugly...
Price was stellar, the injuries suck and we need better puck possession, Koivu needs to bury his open-net chances, and the ugly were the first 2 goals -- but they cemented the game for the Habs, so can't complain! All that matters is the big W!